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EUROPE, MID-EAST, & AFRICA EDITION |
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European Union / Iran: "EU agrees Iranian oil embargo" & "Sanctions will fail and EU will back out of oil embargo, Iran says"Guardian, 24 January 2012 & National Post, 24 January 2012 The European Union Foreign Ministers have voted to enact an embargo against Iranian oil imports, putting a stop to all new contracts for Iranian oil and placing a July deadline on the cancellation of all existing agreements. Several of the more economically fragile member states sought assurances that the sanctions would be reviewed in May for their possible detrimental effects to EU markets. The decision to implement the embargo is a major step in expanding the sanctions regime aimed at penalizing Iran for its continued pursuit of nuclear weapons, as the EU accounts for nearly 20 percent of Iranian oil exports. Iranian officials scoffed at the announcement of the embargo, saying they were confident that Europe, rather than Iran, would suffer the economic consequences of stopping trade and the higher fuel prices that were likely to result. Tehran says it expects that Asian markets will absorb the product that previously went to Europe, meaning that the challenge for the West will now be to convince Asian states like China, Japan, and South Korea to curb their imports as well. Other Iranian officials said that oil could be stored if not sold, and reiterated threats to bring havoc to world energy markets by militarily shutting the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a move the United States says will not be tolerated. Russia: "Not quite a foe, U.S. looms large in Russian world view"Washington Post, 18 January 2012 The Russian government has increased its criticism of the United States in recent months, in what analysts see as political posturing ahead of presidential elections in March. Much of the recent commentary has been directed at Michael McFaul, the newly appointed American ambassador to Moscow, who has been accused by the press of being ignorant of Russia and Russian affairs and inciting anti-government protests in the wake of the contentious December 4th parliamentary elections. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has also made comments critical of the American approach to the Arab Spring, saying that the United States' policy of "exporting democracy" is seriously degrading the security situation in the region, and seemingly suggesting that Washington had a hand in directing the opposition movements. Lavrov also confirmed that Russia would veto any decision by the United Nations Security Council to enact sanctions or otherwise intervene in the ongoing crisis in Syria, or the stalemate in regards to Iran, where misguided military actions could result in a "chain reaction" that could lead to all out war. Syria: "Assad’s government rejects Arab League calls for him to step down" & "Gulf Arab states to pull observers from Syria" & "Head of Arab League observers in Syria rejects criticism" & "Moscow’s ties with Syria grow stronger" & "UN split as Russia sells warplanes to Syria"Washington Post, 23 January 2012 & BBC News, 24 January 2012 & CNN, 24 January 2012 & Financial Times, 24 January 2012 & Ottawa Citizen, 24 January 2012 The Arab League has responded to the apparent failure of its observer mission to stop violent government crackdowns against protestors with a new peace proposal that calls for President Bashar al-Assad to cede power to a unity government. The Assad regime condemned the plan, saying that it amounts to "a violation of international sovereignty" as part of a "conspiratorial scheme hatched against Syria." Though analysts and other observers say it is extremely unlikely that the Syrian government would ever comply with the peace proposal that is similar to the one that eventually led to the removal of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh late last year, the plan is the first real indication that the Arab League wants Assad to be removed from power, a step that is likely to increase the legitimacy of possible United Nations involvement. Under the proposed plan, negotiations with the opposition would begin in two weeks and a national unity government would be formed within two months. Assad would then be replaced by one of his vice presidents before national elections were held. Though the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) welcomed the development, many prominent members of the protest movement have vowed that they will not negotiate with Assad. There was no indication of what steps would be taken if the regime did not comply with the plan. Even though the Arab League observer mission to Syria has not had a demonstrative effect on government conduct against the ongoing protest movement - some figures suggest that civilian deaths have actually increased since the monitors arrived in December - League leaders have decided to extend the mission and increase the number of its representatives in the country. Though there may be value in a continued foreign observer presence in the country, the move also suggests that the Arab League's range of options in dealing with the Assad regime is extremely limited. The countries belonging to the Gulf Cooperation Council have already withdrawn their representatives from the monitoring mission, calling for a more concerted international effort on the part of the whole United Nations to force the Assad regime from power. Syrian officials seemed emboldened by continued divisions within the UN in regards to international intervention, particularly between the western Security Council states and their counterparts in Russia and China. The Syrian Foreign Minister referred in particular to the importance of their Russian allies, who have historically taken a strong stance against foreign intervention in similar situations. As if to underscore its continued close relationship with the Assad regime, Moscow announced on Monday that it has agreed to sell 36 Yak-130 jet aircraft to Syria. Analysts say these planes, while generally used as jet trainers, can also be used as light-attack aircraft, an application that has seen increased attention in irregular and insurgent conflicts around the world. In keeping with previous reports, the overall trend of violence has increased across the country. Sources said to be affiliated with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) suggest that rebel fighters had "seized" the Douma suburb of Damascus, but other sources seemed to indicate that opposition fighters had merely forced a temporary withdrawal of regime forces. Subsequent reports say that the area was later subjected to heavy mortar and artillery fire. The nearby town of Zabadani was also said to have been "liberated" from government forces following ceasefire negotiations with civic leaders, though sources suggest that a withdrawal followed five days of heavy fighting between rebel soldiers and regime forces, who are likely to return. Libya: "Pro-Gaddafi fighters retake Bani Walid" & "Gadhafi Loyalists Seize Libyan City"Al Jazeera, 24 January 2012 & Associated Press, 24 January 2012 Hundreds of fighters loyal to Libya's former leader Muammar Gaddafi, who was killed three months ago, recaptured the town of Bani Walid on Monday. Seven people were killed in the attack and 20 were wounded. The town council has asked for military support from the National Transitional Council, Libya's interim government, but the defence ministry has not sent troops. Some government ministers are denying that Gaddafi supporters have taken the town, and claim the armed clashes are due to an internal dispute over compensation after the war last year. Other observers claim the attackers are no longer backing the remnants of the Gaddafi family, but are instead protesting against the control of the National Transitional Council. Bani Walid, 140 km southeast of Tripoli, was one of the last loyalist strongholds to be captured by rebel fighters in the war against Gaddafi, and there are reports that many of the residents of the town are still sympathetic to the old regime. Tribal politics are probably also at play in this recent violence; the main tribe of Bani Walid, the Warfala Confederation, was very privileged by Gaddafi, which created tensions and resentment from other tribes. Other inter-tribal conflicts have flared up around Libya in recent months, making it very difficult for the interim government to unite and rebuild the country. Egypt: "Egypt election: results show Islamists taking two-thirds of seats" & "Final results confirm Islamists winners in Egypt's elections" & "Egyptian parliament sworn in under heavy weight of expectation" & "Egypt's ruling generals to partially lift emergency law"Telegraph, 21 January 2012 & Washington Post, 21 January 2012 & Guardian, 23 January 2012 & BBC, 24 January 2012 The Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), created by the Muslim Brotherhood, has won 47 percent of seats in Egypt's first freely-elected parliament in 60 years. The 508 parliamentarians were sworn in Monday, with FJP leader Saad al-Katatni named speaker of the assembly. Another Islamist party, the conservative Salafist Nour Party, won 25 percent of the seats. This represents a sharp change in Egyptian politics: the Muslim Brotherhood was officially banned under the old regime of Hosni Mubarak, but now Islamists will have considerable influence in creating the country's new constitution. Liberal Egyptians and Western governments are uneasy about the FJP's rise to power in Egypt, though the party declares it will "uphold the principle of democracy." Observers in Cairo note there are competing expectations of the new parliament, as well as a deep divide between Egyptians who feel this parliament is a successful achievement of the revolution, and those who feel it is the revolution's downfall. Outside the opening session, five separate rallies were staged by various social groups, some calling for more attention to poverty and social problems, others demanding an end to the military's continued control of the executive branch. The ruling council of generals has promised that elections for a new president will take place before the end of June. They also promise that on January 25th they will partially lift the state of emergency, which has been in place since 1981 and gives authorities the power to suspend basic rights. Egypt: "Bedouins take hostages at Sinai resort" & "Bedouin tribesmen storm Egyptian tourist resort"United Press International, 24 January 2012 & Guardian, 24 January 2012 Armed Bedouin men took security guards hostage on Tuesday at a resort in Sinai, on the Red Sea, and are demanding USD $660 million as ransom. It is not believed that the hostages will be harmed, and there were no tourists at the resort at the time of attack. The Bedouin claim that they own the land, and say the Egyptian authorities took control of it illegitimately a year ago. Similar land disputes have taken place in the region since the 1990s, when the Mubarak government began a campaign to create a "Red Sea Riviera" tourist destination and sold large parcels of land previously controlled by the Bedouin people to private investors. Analysts note that today's occupation of seized land is an example of a growing trend around Egypt; since the revolution last year, there have been increasing expectations of social justice, and communities have felt confident enough to challenge the weakened central government. The military's options for responding to the Bedouin are also restricted by a treaty with Israel that limits the deployment of security forces to the Sinai peninsula. Yemen: "Yemen appointment sparks air force mutiny"Al Jazeera, 23 January 2012 Troops at four Air Force bases in Yemen left their posts in protest on Monday, calling for the removal of Air Force Commander Mohammed Saleh, who is seen as too connected to the undemocratic regime that has ruled the country for 33 years. Saleh is a half-brother to Yemen's outgoing president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who faced mass protests and international pressure to resign since January 2011 which he answered with a crackdown that killed hundreds of civilians. The country's parliament passed a law giving Saleh complete immunity in exchange for his resignation. President Saleh left Yemen on Sunday to travel to the US for medical treatment; however, he declared to Yemeni media that he will return to lead the ruling General People's Congress party. Vice-president Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi will serve as interim leader until the presidential election process begin on February 21st. Nigeria: "Kano, Nigeria panics amid fresh gunfire"Ottawa Citizen, 24 January 2012 Coordinated explosions and shooting attacks killed up to 185 people in the city of Kano in northern Nigeria on January 20th, in the deadliest attack so far by the Islamist militant group Boko Haram. Police report the group used suicide bombers, car bombs and hundreds of other explosive devices throughout the city of 4.5 million people. A Boko Haram spokesperson stated that the attacks were carried out because the government refused to release members of the group from prison. On Tuesday morning, police raided a suspected Boko Haram hideout in Kano, sparking a four-hour firefight that killed several bystanders. Boko Haram is fighting to overthrow the government and create an Islamic state. They are based in northern Nigeria, where the majority of people are Muslim, and tend to focus their attacks on state security forces and on members of the Christian minority. A report by the NGO Human Rights Watch says 935 people have died in Boko Haram attacks since 2009, including 235 of them in the first three weeks of 2012. Madagascar: "Madagascar Bars Former Leader From Returning Home"Washington Post, 22 January 2012 Marc Ravalomanana, the former president of Madagascar, was once again foiled in his attempt to return to the island nation on Saturday. Ravalomanana was ousted in a military coup in March 2009, and has since tried to return to the island to reenter politics. Malagasy authorities convicted Ravalomanana in absentia of "abuse of office" and sentenced him to four years in prison. Though power has since been transferred to a transitional civilian government, the conviction against Ravalomanana is still in effect, despite his denial of any wrongdoing and the alleged political nature of the conviction, because the new government remains fearful that his return could complicate an already precarious political landscape. Diplomats from South Africa, Zambia, and Tanzania have been working to convince the Malagasy government to allow Ravalomanana to return, though this would likely reignite the political crisis which has its roots in a presidential impeachment in 1996 which created political divisions amongst the population that are still observed today. |
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